Pataki in 2008, It’s Really That Simple
The past 72 hours the network talking-heads have been buzzing about what Tuesday’s Democratic recapture of Capitol Hill means for the Presidential aspiration of the likes of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Joe Biden as well as Even Bayh, John Edwards, Russ Feingold and even John Kerry and Al Gore. On the GOP side there’s plenty of head scratching and hypothesizing over names like George Allen, Sam Brownback, Bill Frist. Chuck Hagel and John McCain.
You don’t need to do a point-by-point of why each of the names mentioned in the previous paragraph cannot embrace the hope embodied in the old adage, “politics is the art of the possible.”
Certainly anything is possible, but history is a cruel teacher that when it comes to the probable; electing a President whose resume includes “United States Senator,” is, under anything aside from rare circumstance: very unlikely.
November 4, 2008 will be one day shy of forty years since America last elected a United States Senator to the White House. Richard Nixon served a scant two years in the upper house before being tapped by Dwight Eisenhower to fill the second spot on the 1952 GOP ticket. Nixon would become the 15th Senator to eventually find his way to The Oval Office. But it took eight years of relative obscurity following his 1960 loss to John Kennedy plus a rare confluence of events including, Johnson bowing out, Robert Kennedy’s assassination, Vietnam and the overall social upheaval that was the 1960’s to make his return ‘possible.’
Of the fifteen former Senators only two moved directly from Capitol Hill to The White House: John F. Kennedy and Warren G. Harding. Others like Lyndon Johnson, Harry Truman, Andrew Johnson and John Tyler found themselves elected to the Presidency by the single vote of the Grim Reaper paying a visit to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. while they were serving as Vice President. John Quincy Adams was elected by the House when the 1824 election failed to give any candidate the needed victory in the Electoral College. Benjamin Harrison won the Electoral votes while losing the popular vote. Others like Kennedy and William Henry Harrison edged into the office with extremely thin margins in the popular vote.
What was true from 1790 to 1968 is even more so today. In addition to the baggage of a partisan voting record which can easily be spun into a brutal attack ad, today’s Senators are haunted by the specter of a forgotten “macaca moment” captured and waiting like a nuclear time bomb in the arsenal of their loyal opposition.
When you eliminate the Senators from contention you’re left with a small corral of mostly dark horse governors like Richardson, Vilsack and Warner for the Democrats and unelectable long shots like Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani on the GOP side. Wesley Clark and Condi Rice are shear fantasies.
After Tueday’s “drumming” as Bush called it, the Republicans face about as much chance of finding a friendly face north of the Mason-Dixon Line as Robert E Lee’s army did on its march to Gettysburg. And while they did managed to hold the White House without the help of the Northeast’s 117 electoral votes in 2004, such a concession cannot be part of any future GOP victory strategy.
Tuesday’s election results show a pronounced case of Blue State Creep with Santorum’s thumping in Pennsylvania, Michael Steele’s lesser drumming in Maryland and George Allen’s narrow loss in Virginia. The GOP loses in other Red States like Missouri and Montana clearly hearken the end of Carl Roves , “Let them have the Northeast and California. We’ll take everything else and win,” strategy.
Enter Pataki. He heard the footsteps and wisely stepped aside to allow popular New York Democrat Attorney General Elliot Spitzer make mincemeat of the token GOP candidate for Governor. Unlike Bush and Giuliani, he steps from public life with his 9/11 medal of service mostly untarnished. He’s a viable candidate from a big money, big power state without a Senatorial shadow and while he might well lose the home state in a Presidential face-off with Hillary, he will win virtually everywhere else.
So now begins the parlor games, the what-ifs and the exploratory committees. But it’s all little more than cocktail party chatter and fluffy fill for a slow news day. For now, the White House is George Pataki’s to lose…but then again, in the art of the possible, anything’s possible.
